Keynote thouights
So, I have to stress here this is really just my personal opinion, so for what it's worth....
iTV -er- Apple TV
- Pros: The UI is slick and pretty. The HDD was a surprise, and indicates they don't think they'll always be able to make streaming video work reliably. I played with one today and it's snappy.
- Cons: Will be a challenging sell outside of the enthusiast community. It's a $299 device that lets you watch TV in your living room! Comcast already put one of those in my living room. Comes with the little mac remote control, which feels too small/limited to me. It'll be a great itunes video enthusiast accesory, though.
- My prediction: Apple will make a nice margin and the device will sell 1M units in the first 12 months. It isn't going to get strategically significant numbers of living rooms against xbox, ps3, wii (much less comcast, etc...) But it is a version 1 product, so it'll be interesting to see where they go from here.
- Pros: The most stylish smartphone software ever. Seeing it in action, it's fun to see all the rich UI they have built with the obviously massive processor in this thing. They did a nice job of nailing the basics and going a bit beyond in a few places. Full browser and big screen on a phone is nice.
- Cons: The most expensive phone on the market? Niched by price and formfactor. $499 with a 2 year committment is amazingly high end. I don't have numbers, but that priceband must account for a % of a % of the market. I'm also not a real fan of the big flat PDA phone formfactor, but I know others are.
- Prediction: wow, a 10M goal in 2008? Really? Feels aggressive, but I'd hate to underestimate them. I'd bet on 5M, but again a nice margin and a win for Apple shareholders. That said, I think there's a lot of potential here and Apple will learn fast in the phone space if they can hold the cingular partnership together.
22 Comments:
You're right about best UI ever. Never been a big fan of Apple, but they made me eat crow on this one. iPhone looks brilliant. Apple...they're just always a step ahead of the game. As a general consumer, you gotta love it. As someone who has invested heavily in MS technologies, it honestly annoys me. I'll repeat this comment at least once every year: "Why didn't MS think of that."
To MS's credit, PhotoSynth and Seadragon picture technologies look brilliant. Too bad we'll never see interesting things like this in Zune.
Also, if Apple ever manages to get a subscription pass option for iTunes, I'm all over this iPhone thing. Nonethless, I think the scroll wheel is the most overhyped user interface device of this decade. On the other hand, the iPhone's UI is vastly superior to anything MS or any other tech company has ever created. And, with Apple's increasingly superior design skills, MS just better hope Apple doesn't REALLY want to get into the videogames business. LIGHTS. OUT.
A few thoughts...
Beautiful, but curious how well it handles in the real world. Phones, even smart phones, take a lot of abuse. Does it still look good after it's been shoved in the same pocket/bag as your keys?
Touchscreen is great for configurability *but* what do you lose by using a touchscreen? Does it still work in cold weather? Hot? With gloves? What about the lose of something tactile? When I use a phone I'm rarely staring at the buttons as I can find them with my thumb quickly.
I'm torn about the mixed Pod + Phone. The times when I'd use it most for media are also the places I have least access to power, hence I'd probably want to conserve it for use as a phone. Example, a bus + plane = heavy media usage yet as soon as I walk off that plane I need my phone so I can make calls to clients, friends, cab, hotel, etc. A 5h battery life under heavy load will be gone pretty much the second the wheels touch down. Oh, and only 4GB/8GB? A screen big enough to watch movies yet no space to put much on there.
Just worry about your own estimates....
This will easily exceed 10 million.
It's hilarious you've been doing all this fretting about their numbers, and yet you claimed to predict they would do a billion in less than 320 days! It was easy to see it would take no more than a little more than a year, but I know of no analyst bold enough to predict it in less than a year. I was projecting around the 2nd week of February.
By the way, Apple isn't trying to compete with game consoles (You guys -- Microsoft but particularly the XBox or Zune boys -- seem to think that the huge % of people will buy the XBox as a media device? Just the opposite, we won't buy it because we don't want a game device.), it's called a media strategy: creating a seamless experience for all forms of media. Meanwhile you'll run around claiming your device is great for video, but you don't sell videos! Ha, ha, ha!! Go back in the office and give the Pros and Cons of your own device to yourself.
shawn, it has an SD slot... Just bring a 2GB card... And luckily Airplanes are beginning to offer power supplies and docking connections for iPods in-seat.
MS do not understand consumers and lack the capabilities to create enough interest and buzz in their technologies to translate them into sales. Microsoft heavily promoted the tablet pc and the ultra mobile pc. None of them were a success.
I find ironic that Microsoft still criticize Apple's close-system approach, while they copy it for the Zune. They talk about how great is having partners, when they backstabbed their PFS partners.
Apple is driven by its passion to create great things, MS is driven by what the competitors are doing. If there is a successful search engine they will also introduce a search engine, if someone have a video sharing site, they will also have one. They have too many things going on and none of them are the best of their kind.
Typical MS thought process:
"wow, a 10M goal in 2008? Really? Feels aggressive, but I'd hate to underestimate them. I'd bet on 5M, but again a nice margin and a win for Apple shareholders."
Backhanded compliment, talking out of both sides of mouth, can't beleive anything they say, and not self-aware enough that you are doing exactly what you claimed you wouldn't do the SENTENCE BEFORE!! You UNDERESTIMATE them by 100%!!
Should the Zune team be underestimating Apple in this space? Shouldn't you just OVERESTIMATE them by default to motivate yourselves a bit?
I like the UI and the looks of the phone but a crappy EDGE and no true 3G for $500 or $600 phone does not cut it for me.
However I do think Apple will sell enough of it to make it a success. What’s interesting is that feature wise Windows Mobile seems to already do all that iPhone does.
My prediction is that iPhone will have its share in the market in future but it will be a niche player like palm or RIM.
I also expect a version of Windows mobile which will compete in this niche market with the iPhone in future.
I think by and large the comments here are sensible.
I agree that touchscreens are pretty rough (I worked on something eerily iPhone-like at Bell Labs in 1990 and it was a big sticking point).
Don't worry - we're plenty self-critical of our products and ourselves too. I like to keep that internal though ;)
fwiw, I think anyone predicting massive phone success or failure for a product we've never even seen working is overreaching. Anyone predicting anything about the longer term is just crazy - who knows where they'll go from here?
1. Steve Jobs is a jerk, smug, asshole. Did you watch his keynote? Did he really have to play those commericials?
2. Unless the price of the iPhone drops, not many people will be getting it. Trust me.
"Don't worry - we're plenty self-critical of our products and ourselves too."
We're not. You should be. Both.
"I like to keep that internal though ;)"
We don't and we think it makes you look like an ass. And I'm not just saying, "we don't like it", I'm saying it as advice: this makes you look worse than Apple already made you look.
"Did he really have to play those commericials?"
It's been pretty standard fare to play the current advertising at their keynotes for over a decade.
If they hurt you so much, you can not watch.
Some things that I would like to point out:
1.As the infamous "i-anonymous" said above, Microsoft's digital strategy so far has far too many holes, including a video-capable zune but no video store.
2.Where does Media Center fit into the Zune and IPTV strategies. Shockingly, there were slim to no media center announcements at CES.
3.When and how does Windows Mobile and Zune converge. More importantly, how long will this take.
4.When are the video strategies for the 360 and Zune going to converge. As of now, you can buy TV shows on your 360 but you have absolutely no way of getting them onto a Zune. The same thing applies to movies, which you don't own but rent on the 360.
Also, I'm going to offer my long-term prediction for what Apple will do to this cell phone space:
1st - The original first generation iPhone will remain a niche product and will never move huge numbers similar to the original iPod.
2nd - New, reduced-size iphones in 2008 with more battery life and cheaper price being to rollout. Will be offered on several carriers, although someone will likely be left out (probably Verizon). This brings iPhone to the masses and Apple begins to extend their music-device monopoly to the cell phone market.
3rd - Somewhere around 2009 Microsoft "realizes" that there is a lucrative market for consumer-oriented music and video-capable cell phones and begins to develop a Windows Mobile phone with Zune-like features. Meanwhile, Apple continues to build their lead and overtakes the blackberrys and Palms of the world.
4th - Windows Mobile "Zune Edition" drops with little fanfare. ifanboys and the masses critisize the product and Microsoft struggles to release frequent updates and keep up with Apple as usual. Meanwhile, Apple preps their next big thing while Microsoft is still focusing on catching up to Apple's last successful product.
Repeat cycle ad nauseum.
What's a thouight? Is that a new word? Or did you type the piece on your blackberry?
Why do you say the processor is "obviously massive"? Did you work on Aero? Maybe it's just really well coded.
I sould be more specific; massive isn't about size, it's about Processor power. And I meant relative to other smartphones.
If true, it's a plus in that in enables nice experiences. it's a minus on cost of goods and/or battery life (you can trade off one for the other).
At that price, I suspect they favored better battery life over cost.
I agree that MS strategy has too many holes and goes in too many different directions. Apple's cult strategy (make Apple products central to your existence) results in a stronger brand.
However the iPhone design reminds me of the OS X Dock: looks cool in a demo but is a pain in daily use. Jobs obscures the main benefit of hard buttons: they give tactile feedback and you can use them blind. I have an LG Chocolate and its soft buttons are often a pain. I know Apple is trying to alleviate this with "gestures" but when you have buttons laid out next to each other there are still going to be a lot of entry errors.
But it looks cool, that is all that matters to some people. I would love to see an objective UI analysis on this device. Apple is generally vastly overhyped on their UI.
As a brand-new Zune owner and a big fan of everything that's been done with the 360, I've been very pleased with the direction Microsoft has been taking lately. With blogs like Zunester here, along with Major Nelson and Gamerscore, you guys really have given yourselves a great opportunity to get solid and instant feedback from your community.
Now I'd like to know what you're going to do with it all.
The issue is exactly what many here have said: you're making great products with odd holes in them. Why are so many features for the Zune absent? I'm not talking about giving wireless syncing or the ability to buy songs from my Zune. I'm talking about standard things; things that should be no brainers, yet don't exist:
- No text browsing option. I've used this in all of the players that offered the feature. The ability to make a quick memo on my PC and take it with me may seem small, but it's pretty handy.
- Using the Zune as a portable hard drive. Honestly now, this should have been the most obvious. As a college student, that was half of the benefit of owning my 30GB iPod. Having plenty of storage accessible from both my college's Macs and my home PC was invaluable, and I'm certainly not the only one. Whoever decided that was an underused feature was missinformed.
- Recording radio. If this is absent due to deals with your content providers, then I'll give you some leeway here. Otherwise, it's a great feature that many of us would use regularly.
- A clock. For goodness sakes, why is there no clock?
- Contacts browser. And have it sync easily with Outlook, Live Mail Desktop (which I currently use), and have the option of standard vcards. Another great feature of the (largely featureless) iPod that should be included. Heck, include this in the wireless system! Let me send my contact information to other Zunes, as if I were giving out my business card. Talk about a fantastic addition to your social mantra.
Again, you all are way ahead in my book, but I urge you to get on the ball with some serious feature-adding ASAP on this device. As has been said in near every review, there's so much potential here, and it would be a travesty to have both the advanced wireless features, and more common (but no less important) features as listed above be nonexistant.
I bought the Zune because I believe that it's the best player on the market, with the most room to grow. Prove me right! :)
Anonymous, you're,killing me. If you wanted all of thses features, then why did you buy a Zune? The iPod has had most of these features since its origin. Oh, you're one of those Microsoft kissers who'd buy their product no matter what. I just wouldn't know what end of Balmer would be the best to kiss.
Al: I think there's more than one Anonymous, but I agree the antagonism just gets old after a while...
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It seems like Apple is effective at controlling their minions (and therefore influencing the marketplace) because they spend more time on the details than on the features. I'm not sure what to make of this situation, as on one hand, we all want bug-free products that do what we want them to do, but on the other, I feel that with Apple, you're always getting much less for much more money.
Well it seems that everyone is in on this one.
A couple of thoughts.
1) Other than the IPOD and FinalCut Pro what else has Apple excelled at? There OS is good but does it stomp the Windows OS? They both appeal to different market segments.
2) I don't believe the I-Phone is over priced. When you consider the consolidation aspect of all the components. IPOD Shuffle $80, Palm $150 and cell phone $100 plus other features your getting into that $499 range. Sure it will be high end for those that can't afford it but it will have it's niche.
3) For all the people griping about Microsoft not considering the customer; if you use Outlook, Frontpage, Access, or Word you really have to reach hard to say that they look past the customer.
All of those are very stable, smart programs.
4) Please stop with the Zune comments. Anybody remember the first gen IPOD...Do you really think this is a bad first effort? Not having video on marketplace; I know it's coming because their is a video tab and I can download any WMV and load into the library. Does ITUNES have a pass subscription? No! Does anybody piss and moan about that? Personally with current DRM or MP4 restrictions I love the fact that I can download whatever I want and not have to pay to own something I can't really own. It will take me approximately 267 months of monthly subscription fees to pay for the value of .99 per song that I-tunes charges.
Just a few thoughts and opinion.
Al, I'm the Anonymous that you're ticked at.
The reason I purchased the Zune lies in much more important features than text browsing or importing contacts. Zune's build quality is superior, it has a radio built in, the screen is bigger, is has better sound quality, sharing accounts with my 360 gamertag, the possibilities of future upgrades both minor and large... the list goes on. Make no mistake, I'm not complaining, I'm suggesting. As I said, Zune's already got my vote, now I'm encouraging them to make it better.
Don't be so quick to make assumptions of others! I bought the 360 and Zune because they're better products in my eyes, and frankly, I'm giving credit where credit is due. Microsoft has been doing an admirable job as of late keeping up with their consumer's requests. Something that companies like Sony and Apple, who seem to design first and let the consumer sort it out on their own, could take a note from.
Al, and Anoynomous
The iPod does not have all of the features that 'Anoynomous' is referring to, it does not even come close. IMHO, the under-appreciated and under-marketed Media player is the Archos 604 WiFi:
DVR mode, drag and drop or WMP11 sync, 802.11B Opera browser, Voice and HiFi recorder, Video ENcoding, Touchscreen; replaceable battery, Wireless Fileserver Mode (NO DRM), PDF + Text viewer, Huge 16:9 Screen (4.3 inches) THe negative is it is large.
However, I saw at 2007 CES Archos just introduced a smaller version of the 604WiFi, which will make it more pocketable.
The iPod has every feature mentioned except radio recording because it doesn't have a radio.
Text notes, clock, contacts.
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