Music subscription comments
A couple of folks have commented on my point that the price ($14.99) might be inhibiting adoption of subscription services. Some have mentioned that it is/isn't a "fair" price.
I tend to see it differently. Whether it's "fair" or not isn't really my concern; the real issue is that these aren't interesting services unless they get mass adoption by dozens of millions of users. Whether the fee is $1 or even $100 a month (both in my mind "fair") has a huge impact on adoption.
Another way to think about this is that it's a negotiation between the service provider and the users. Both need to agree on a price. When the price is high, only a small number of users agree. As it gets cheaper, more pile in.
The challenge right now is it's impossible to be profitable below (or frankly even at) $15. So prices under that point can't be part of the discussion.
14 Comments:
I was one of the commenters who called $15/month "fair."
But I should have gone a step further and said that I don't think $9.99/month would be the "tipping point" that some imagine it would. Sure, there is a group of consumers willing to subscribe at $10 that wouldn't at $15, just like there are people willing to buy the Zune at $149 who wouldn't buy it at $249.
But I don't think that group of $10 subscribers is large enough to make subscription music a success. (You would need 50% more people at that price to reach the same gross income -- gross, not net.)
At any reasonable price, I think subscription music requires too much time and effort to be valuable to the average consumer, who only casually listens to music.
Hard-core music fans (whether they prefer the latest hits or obscure, hard-to-find tracks) definitely see the most benefit from a subscription model. There just aren't enough of them to outnumber the casual music fans, so I think the subscription model will always come in second to the purchase model.
I'm happy that both options are available. (For now.) And kudos to the Zune team for offering both options (subscription music or purchase by the track) to their customers.
I think bj has hit the nail on the head. Those who will, will at either $10 or $15, those who won't, won't at any price.
Will music videos be a part of the zune pass?
I agree to some extent. $15 might be too high for a lot of people however that’s also because subscription music is very basic right now. At $15 if more inovative features and scenarios are offered around subscription then more people will be attracted to subscription. Also people need to be educated about the benefits of subscription music. I do not think anyone out there has gone to the market with a clear message about subscription and tried to sell it.
However I do not know by how much will the adoption rate go up by following my points.
A use based equation could offset this. It doesn't "cost" the provider, studio, or the artist when someone doesn't access their content... so why should people still pay the full price every month if/when their actual use varies?
I will say $15/month (or even more) is really fair in those months that I use the service... but real life doesn't let me do that every month... and at the end of the months I don't update my keys, download new content etc... I really resent that 15 dollars still flowing out of my pocket. Maybe I'm just not a good subscription music candidate... but I think this could be worked out, and could let other users manage their own costs at the same time... potentially introducing the critical mass you mention.
@tdm -- Downloading new music isn't the only way someone "uses" the music.
For example: You download a full 30 GB of music to your Zune in the first month. (If you were to purchase this much music, it would cost thousands of dollars.) You listen to the music fairly often, but you don't *change* it for the next six months.
According to your argument, because new music wasn't "accessed," the consumer shouldn't be charged the full amount for five out of six months, even though he or she was listening (using?) the music the entire time.
Do you see the flaw in this argument? People could just do all their downloading in the beginning (when they pay "full price"), and then just listen to their music for several months in a row while paying only a discount.
Your argument would have merit if the value (or even the cost) of the music was based primarily on the download bandwidth, but that is clearly not the case.
I would pay $15 a month - but I'm in the UK and it costs $30 a month. No thanks.
S.
bj - in your analogy if the licenses are not renewed then they aren't being used. Since we're talking about DRM it should be possible to track real useage.
Maybe DRM is useful!
S.
The zune was my first MP3 player and I love subscription music. Yes it took me a while to get on board with the MP3 generation but here are the reasons I love the subscription service. I pay 15 dollars a month which I figure is like buying 1.5 full albums or 15 songs. I have approximately 1200 songs on my zune. I would say roughly 1100 of these are from my zune pass. So for me if I don't download another song for (1100 * .99= $1076/$15=72.6 months) 6 years I have still come out ahead. You may ask what about all of the CDs you already own. I didn't have to take the time to rip them because I just searched for them in the marketplace and downloaded them. The other 10-20 cds that I did rip were of stuff that wasn't available. To me it has been a great way to explore music that I wouldn't have ever purchased before. I will be buying me wife a zune 4 or 8 so we can share my pass and new budding interest in music. All thanks to the Zune and the Zune Pass. Great job on the new devices....
@bj The subscription music downloaded cannot be played once the keys expire (the DRM keys are updated whenever you log into the Zune software and Sync). So, the music on the device doesn't live forever... updating those keys would count as use... which is why I mentioned that specifically in my suggestion.
I just thought I'd add I told my dad about this (I just convinced him that a Zune was an awesome thing that he should get). I then told him about the Zune Pass and instantly jumped on it. He thinks it's a friggin' steal since he buys at least one to three CD's per month (at ~$13 a pop!).
David, will new new firmware/software use the same P4S DRM 9.1 that the old one did or are you building it from scratch, like practically everything else?
"Since we're talking about DRM it should be possible to track real useage."
@Steve Hurcombe -- You really want DRM that tracks specific usage? That sounds like the early stages of a pay-per-listen scheme, which I (and many others) are 100% against. That's a bit Big Brothery for my taste.
@tdm -- Based on your most recent comment, it sounds like what you're actually asking for is a self-cancelling subscription. You want the Zune (or whatever player) to "notice" when you haven't played any subscription music, and automatically cancel your subscription for you. That makes little sense to me, so I must be misinterpreting your statements.
If you regularly go more than a month without plugging your Zune into your computer (to update the subscription keys), you sound like a very poor candidate for a music subscriber.
First of all...new zunes look nice. Great to see a better (great?) feature set this time around.
Now, as regards music subscription: for my money eMusic is the way to go. Flat rate, and get to own the music. For some reason this is the hybrid model right now.
I think a better model would be an all you can eat rental service with a fixed number of songs a month to own. This way you listen to as much as you want, and choose to own the songs that stand out. As soon as someone does this, I'll gladly sign up. Just a thought.
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