Saturday, September 29, 2007

What I read this summer

My reading list from my week in the woods.


The Treasure Hunt: Inside the Mind of the New Consumer
Great book; would be most applicable were we a retailer but still very interesting. Basic thesis is that consumers are rapidly swapping into a mode of “trading down” on most items, e.g. looking for bargain, cheap, but still quality products. They then select a few categories that are meaningful to them and “trade up” in those categories to premium brands and experiences. The money saved on trading down goes directly into the trading up categories. A vast category of products/retailers thus left experiencing “death in the middle” by not appealing to either.

The central idea is worth the read, but the color provided in the examples is useful as well. Examples include Walmart, Sears, Toyota, Bed, Bath, and Beyond, and many others.

The Future of Music: Manifesto for the Digital Music Revolution
Useful review of trends in the music business, followed by dreamy, visionary predictions about where music is going/should go. Most of the dreamy vision should be familiar to folks in Zune, but it’s still fun to read them. The authors are very knowledgeable about the web 2.0 trends and capabilities, and somewhat knowledgeable about the music business as it stands. Where I think they fall down is in their running polemic about the music space, which basically amounts to:

· Music consumers – always right, not really engaging in piracy but rather in sharing/promoting artists. If only someone could provide them with music discovery mechanisms, they’d be happy to pay for music.
· Music labels – stupid, narrow minded, silly. If only they’d do these three easy things, their entire business model would turn around and they’d be rolling in money.
· Artists – the real talent in the music space, and they’re all being held back by the evil labels. Soon they’ll all become businessmen and great things will happen.

I think dreamy visionaries will like this book but don’t really need to read it. Skeptics should read it, but will be annoyed by the tone.

The Cult of the Amateur: How Today's Internet is Killing Our Culture
The perfect antidote to “The Future of Music”. This book is one long screed about how awful the web and web 2.0 are, which makes it annoying, but not quite so annoying that it’s not worth reading. There is some good data gathered here, but oh my gosh is this guy insane. Basically, afaik his thesis is that web 2.0 is destroying our society and valued institutions, and is causing a lot of harm. The book is a somewhat random collection of gripes – the music industry I love is being destroyed, professional journalism is being destroyed, ID theft is awful, web child pornography is bad, online gambling destroys lives, etc. Under that, there are some interesting datapoints.

The “best” chapters for data are the “blogging is destroying news” section and the “the web is destroying the music experiences” sections. Best is very much in quotes.

The Great Influenza: The story of the deadliest pandemic in history
(off topic, but worth mention). Great history book about the revolution in medical research driven by Johns Hopkins and Rockefeller in the 1900 – 1910 period and the vast test that establishment faced in 1918 when the worst pandemic in history hit following world war [I]. That pandemic killed 50M – 100M people worldwide. The extent to which that pandemic can be traced back through time to its source in Kansas is amazing, and the narrative is very well told.

Gripping story, good history.

Time Management from the Inside Out
Kind of an inspiring book, but not really concrete enough for me. Good psychoanalysis of the things that cause people to fail at time management though, and some basic steps to take that may help. I think I needed more of a cookbook of techniques than this offers.

China, Inc.: How the Rise of the Next Superpower Challenges America and the World
Everyone should read this. Really great backgrounder on what’s happening in china and in the rest of the world. Full of insightful history, to public policy, to business impact I thought this book did a great job of answering my questions about China’s rise. I’ll steal more info from the publisher’s weekly review:
A lively, fact-packed account of China's spectacular, 30-year transformation
from economic shambles following Mao's Cultural Revolution to burgeoning market
superpower, this book offers a torrent of statistics, case studies and anecdotes
to tell a by now familiar but still worrisome story succinctly. Paid an average
of 25 cents an hour, China's workers are not the world's cheapest, but no nation
can match this "docile and capable industrial workforce, groomed by generations
of government-enforced discipline," as veteran business reporter (and Chicago
Mercantile trading firm founder) Fishman characterizes it. Since Mexican wages
were (at the time) four times those of China, NAFTA's impact has been dwarfed by
China's explosive growth (about 9.5% a year), and corporations and entrepreneurs
operating in China have few worries about minimum wages, pensions, benefits,
unions, antipollution laws or worker safety regulations. For the U.S., Fishman
predicts more of what we're already seeing: deficits, declining wages and the
squeezing of the middle class. His solutions (revitalize education, close the
trade gap) are not original, but some of his statistics carry a jolt: since
1998, prices in the U.S. have risen 16%, but they've fallen in nearly every
category where China is the top exporter; a pair of Levis bought at Wal-Mart
costs less today, adjusted for inflation, than it did 20 years ago—though the
company no longer makes clothes in China.


I would add that I thought there was a nice balance between threat and opportunity analysis; the book presents a balanced view of China’s perspective and the opportunity they present, as well as the scary side. I very much came away feeling that most of the US wounds usually blamed on China are in fact self-inflicted.

Pictures from last week...

For those who might be interested, I was on a solo week at the cabin my grandfather built in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan last week. It's one of my favorite places on Earth (having been there nearly every summer from 1 year old to 30 yrs).

You can see a selection of pictures here. This was the latest in the year I've been there, thus my fascination with the changing tree colors.

Monday, September 17, 2007

heading into the woods of the UP of mi

Monday, September 10, 2007

Disney vacation part II - the business analyst

Having spoken about the emotional impact of a disneyland vacation, I had a lot of thoughts about Disneyland from a business standpoint. Some of my favorites:
  • I've never seen a better example of how valuable brands can be or of brand management. Disney has a bunch of very strong brands/characters that they've jealously guarded over the years, and they use them supremely well in Disneyland. I can really understand why disney is fighting so hard for those intellectual properties.
  • Disney vs. Warner. Both Disney and Warner Bros. had a valuable stock of characters created in movie theaters in the 30s, 40s, and 50s. When I was growing up, Warner harvested value from these by running the Looney Tunes cartoons constantly. I've seen every one 10 times, but they also feel kind of "used up". By contrast, Disney never ran their HUGE stock of cartoons on afternoon TV. This would have made some money, but their characters feel somehow more historic and precious today.
  • Disneyland uses these brands in big ways. They do have a lot of modern characters (Stitch, Muppets, Pixar) but those are used very differently from the "golden age" characters. Those are put into a much more sparing and special place in the pantheon. As a result, Disneyland feels like a historic place - it's been around since the 50s and they are mindful of that legacy. It must be an interesting challenge in balance using vs. preserving the brands.
  • Disney vs. Lego. We also went to Legoland. A very different experience. Lego feels much more greedy and monetizing...trying to sell you things at every corner, full of "premium" rides that cost more, lines are much more of a problem. My kids had a good time there, but much less so than at disney. Legoland is an amusement park - Disney is much more of a family experience. Part of the difference is operations, but a much bigger part is the presence of the characters and brands. "Pinnochio's Amazing Adventure" wouldn't be quite the same ride if it were more generic.
  • Disney and the art of monetization. Disneyland sucks your wallet dry, but you mostly feel happy about it. Admission is pricey, but absolutely worth it. All the rides are free. Food in the park is expensive, but not quite to the point where you feel ripped off. Souvenirs are for sale all over the place, but they're nice and placed in context (e.g., muppets near the muppet ride). One day they gave us a set of necklace ribbons with "pins" and characters. You then are free to "trade" pins with any park personnel who have a necklace. A really fun game - and oh, if you can't trade to get the right Kermit pin, you can buy them at a nearby shop. Clever....
  • Disney People. I don't know what microchip they've stuck in everyone's head, but the staff are awesome. They are great with your kids, and genuinely seem to love their jobs. These folks are a huge part of what's good about the experience. The people are smart and trusted and given autonomy to break rules when necessary to make your experience better. They let my poor wife skip up in line to me when we got separated and she showed up late with our 2 yr old. Things like this happened a lot - they appear to me to genuinely have giving you a great experience at the absolute top of their priority list. This feels very deep and cultural.
  • Attention to making sure everyone has a good time. Legoland was really all about my son, the lego fan. Disneyland makes every experience fun for the whole family, from my 2 yr old daugher to 42 year old me. This isn't an accident. They use a combination of thoughtful design, parental love, middle-aged nostalgia, and fun experiences to make this happen.

Trip to Disneyland, Part I – wide-eyed consumer

My family and I went to Disneyland for the first time this summer, and we were pleasantly surprised how much fun we had. My wife and I were braced for it to be a lot of fun for the kids but not so much for us. Turns out, it was great for everyone. The Disney folks really know how to create an amazing experience for the whole family. The main adult highlight was watching our kids having an awesome time, but we had a good time in our own right. Key highlights:
  • Disney taps into our collective unconscious. I'm not a particularly huge disney fan, but you walk into the place surreounded by mythic characters like Micky, Pluto, etc... and it's hard not to feel the history and place in American culture these guys occupy.
  • Disney runs a tight show. The park is magical in it's cleanliness and that everything works. You leave the park at 10pm and they must have hordes of minions working the late shift keeping everything running because it all works smoothly. No closed rides, no broken animatronic characters = no disappointed urchins because the Winnie the Pooh ride broke down.
  • Disney fills your kids with awe. My 7 year old son - now hitting the too-cool-for-this-stuff was completely charmed by the characters at the breakfasts we attended. He got to meet Alice, Snow White, Goofy, Minnie, and Lilo and Stitch at the breakfasts and they all really charmed him. He sort of realized that they were guys in suits, but only sort of. That's to say nothing of the after-dark parade of lights, the disney character parade, or the absolutely stunning fireworks show (don't just watch from your hotel - you need the audio in the park to really appreciate it). It was really moving to watch their faces throughout.
  • They have line management down. If you do things right, you spend amazingly little time in line there, which is amazing considering the vast throngs. The new fast passes are great - instead of waiting in line, you sign up to go later (say, between 1:00 and 1:40) and then you totally zip past the entire line and get straight on.
  • Best rides in our opinions: Buzz lightyear, Star tours, Cartopia, the train around the park, Splash mountain, Pirates of the Carribean, Muppetvision 3d, dumbo, Pinocchio, a bug's land (for little kids).

My top tips:

  • We stayed at the Camalot hotel outside the park - nice, relatively inexpensive, and two room suites with kitchens. Recommended.
  • Get the multiday passes that enable one day of early admission. You get into the park when it's much less crowded and there are basically no lines.
  • Go early, have fun until 10 or 11, then go home and miss the crowds and heat until 2 or 3. Then play until 9 or 10.
  • Don't miss the fireworks. Really, go and go into the park.
  • The two parades per day are really fun.
  • The character meals are awesome with kids. Take it from a cheapskate - it's expensive, but easily worth it. Amazingly so.
  • Make sure you go to the california adventure park, even with little ones. The bug's life park is fun, Muppet 3D is amazingly good, and walking around is memorable. Go see "It's Tough to be a Bug", but beware - it's a bit on the scary side for wee ones.
  • Go to the Innoventions ride, if for no other reason than to see the Zune ;)

Friday, September 07, 2007

iPod 2007 Lineup

A number of comments have asked me for my take on the iPod announcements. Important to stress that I’m presenting my impressions/opinions only; nothing official from Zune here! Also, they’re just my opinions and I could be wrong, so I’m going to sit on my hands and let the comments fly without much response lest I spend the next week arguing with passionate Apple fans!

I thought the new iPods themselves were interesting, but more incremental than I'd expected. The shuffle is of course not very revolutionary (new colors) but it’s only one year old so that’s to be expected. The new iPod Nano is interesting; they chose the “fatty” look to incorporate video, which imo will divide users. If you think it’s primarily a music device, you may well like the old “tallboy” formfactor better because it lends itself to lanyard headphones and armbands better. If you’re really excited about video on a small screen, you will like the tradeoff. I’m also not certain what it’s going to feel like to use the scrollwheel when it’s positioned on a square device this way – looking forward to trying it out.

The iPod classic is a necessary but not very interesting product. Apple couldn’t make a flash touch iPod work for below $399 (it’s interesting they didn’t opt for a HDD based touch, but I suspect it would be too thick for their aesthetic), so they had to fill the prices between Nano and Touch, and did so with minimal effort. Smart compromise - they’re good workhorse products, but won’t drive many upgrades from the old ones.

The iPod Touch is…the iPhone without the phone. It presents early adopter enthusiasts with a tough choice – to get touch/wifi/etc., you must accept small storage. I'll look forward to seeing how it sells.

Oh yeah – wifi. I’ve got a unique perspective here; I’m not actually all that excited about buying music from my portable device. Yeah, yeah, I know, a lot of you folks really want this, but I personally think it’s a good demo feature but not really all that useful. Browsing on the device is compelling – when you’re connected to a hotspot.

A good lineup, but not an ideal situation. They have lots of skus and some consumers are presented with tough choices, but I think Apple made the most of two tough tradeoffs. The first was the gradual transition to flash as the main storage on mp3 players. This will play out over the next 3 years or so as prices drop, but for now they stretched to offer a high end flash product. The second tradeoff was touch. I have been using an iPhone a bunch recently, and while I think touch is cool, I’m not sure it’s actually better than the scrollwheel. In some ways is not as good. I think this year gives them a chance to introduce it, see how folks react, and make it better without risking the heart of the line.

The challenge they’ll face is that I don’t think this lineup will drive upgraders very aggressively. If you own a 2G Nano, do you feel you must buy a 3G? If you have an ipod 30GB, I’m sure you don’t want a classic. Do you want a touch? Maybe, but it’s a lot of money for smaller storage. It’ll be interesting to watch the next year unfold and see how this lineup does.

This summer...

  • Lots of work.
  • Really really crappy northwest summer. Stopped raining late, never really got our 2 months of sunshine, never really got warm. No global warming here... ;)
  • Home landscaping gardening/lawn madness. It's supposed to get dry and stunt growth here, and instead it kept watering the damned plants.
  • Really really exciting (in the negative way) family health care issue. All is ok now.
  • First time trip to Disneyland!
  • New BMW 335xi!
  • Family vacation in Bend, Oregon!
  • Lots of cycling (but never enough). Half century ride on the tour de peaks in Snoqualmie
  • Dogfood, dogfood, dogfood.
  • Blown rear shock on my mountain bike ;(
  • iPhone! iPods! Fatties!
  • Urge/Rhapsody deal! Continued collapse of the standalone services!
  • SPOT Watch!

Stay tuned for thoughts on many of these.

I'm still here....

this summer I sort of got out of the habit of posting, and so Zunester has been pretty quiet. Some recent comments slapped me around and I'm going to make a real effort to start posting regularly again. It's going to be a little while before I can really start talking about upcoming events, so for now I'll stick to responding to comments, industry news, and posting less zune-centric thoughts.

That said, stay tuned...there will be lots to discuss before the holiday is over...